2026 U.S. Senate
Who will control the Senate after 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrats a 64% chance of controlling the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections (Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 65%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 62.5% / 37.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 64.5% / 35.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic candidate | 62.5% | $5.6M |
| Republican candidate | 37.5% | $6.3M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic candidate | 64.5% | $3.2M |
| Republican candidate | 35.5% | $2.4M |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win control of the Senate in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrats a 64% chance of controlling the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections (Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 65%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 63%, Republicans 38%. Polymarket: Democrats 65%, Republicans 36%. The two exchanges differ by 2.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Closest races in 2026
- House controlD 93%
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Senate control,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/control/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.