Parlay the People · 31 days to the 2026 election
Political News, Election odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, race by race
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets say Democrats are favored to win the Senate (64%), the House (93%) and the 2028 presidency (62%). Parlay the People tracks every race on Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side, keeps the price history, and covers the politics behind the numbers.
Updated
2026 midterms · snapshot
Where the 2026 midterms stand
31days to go
Senate control
64% Dem36% GOP
Dem ▲ 2.0 pts over the past weekMedian outcome: 48 Republican seats · 50 for control$17.8M traded on Senate controlHouse control93% Dem7% GOP
Dem ▲ 0.6 pts over the past weekMedian outcome: 198-202 Republican seats · 218 for control$56.1M traded on House control63%Democrats sweep both chambers▲ 2.1 pts over the past week
93%Democrats win the national House vote▼ 0.4 pts over the past week
9races rated toss-upunchanged over the past week
$239.4Mtraded on 2026 races$7.6M since trade records began
555 races tracked · 285,640 price points recorded · Every 2026 race → · Today's market report →
Your races
Races you follow · change since your last visit- The White HouseFact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Announces Medicare Improvement Fund Payments for Seniors
- Fox NewsTrump drops Republican Senator's phone number in social post over fury on stalled bill
- New York PostTexas Dem James Talarico takes LGBTQ group’s cash — after vowing to ban trans surgeries for kids
- Washington ExaminerTrump to give $90 one-time payment to 20 million Medicare beneficiaries
- Daily CallerEXCLUSIVE: Major Political Party Leader In The Balkans Calls For Trump, Putin To Help Him Create New Christian Nation In Europe
- National ReviewWhy the Supreme Court Should Shut Down Boulder’s Climate Case
- Washington Free BeaconAbdul El-Sayed Billed County Taxpayers $9,000 a Month in ‘Consulting’ Fees While Running for Senate
- The FederalistPoll: 6 In 10 Americans Oppose Democrats’ Plan To Pack The Supreme Court
- RealClearPoliticsTrump Regrets Appointing Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett
- thecomeback.comJon Gruden makes major move for Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections
- ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and VideosHouse Republicans vote to rescind Trump's Canada tariffs in rebuke
- Daily MailDemocrats begin 'salivating' over Trump hit list as they place Saudi ties and crypto empire in their sights
- The White HouseNational Manufacturing Day, 2026
- Fox NewsTennessee prison chief resigns after failed execution as former US attorney tapped to lead independent review
- New York PostBlakeman vows to ban transgender students in girls’ school bathrooms and lockers in NY
- Washington ExaminerWATCH LIVE: Trump holds a rally in Vandalia, Ohio
- Parlay the PeopleIntroducing Parlay the People
- Big money$131K trade: No on Ken Paxton at 37¢, Texas Senate
- Big money$89K trade: Yes on Democratic party at 71¢, Alaska Senate
- Big money$88K trade: Yes on Democratic party at 71¢, Alaska Senate
- MarketsDemocrats 64% to win the Senate
- MarketsDemocrats 93% to win the House
- Markets2028 presidency: Democrats 62%, Republicans 38%
- MoversOregon Governor: Democratic odds down 10.8 pts this week
- MoversCO-03 (Colorado): Democratic odds down 10.4 pts this week
- MoversVA-01 (Virginia): Democratic odds up 8.1 pts this week
- Close raceToss-up watch: Nevada Governor at D 50%
- Close raceToss-up watch: VA-01 (Virginia) at R 52%
The big picture
Democratic odds now, and how they've moved over the past 30 days.
What's moving the markets
Races where the favorite has flipped, and the candidates gaining or losing the most ground, over the past 30 days.
Rising stars · 2028
J.D. Vance (R)Republican nomination▲ 2.551% → 54%
Andy Beshear (D)Democratic nomination▲ 1.73% → 5%
Gavin Newsom (D)Democratic nomination▲ 1.514% → 16%
James Talarico (D)Democratic nomination▲ 1.12% → 3%
Losing ground · 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)Democratic nomination▼ 2.719% → 16%
Marco Rubio (R)Republican nomination▼ 2.421% → 19%
J.D. Vance (R)presidency▼ 1.824% → 22%
Marco Rubio (R)presidency▼ 1.411% → 10%
The Pulse: buzz vs. odds
Markets show where the money is; social shows where the conversation is. Conversation over the past 24 hours; odds as of now.
California GovernorXavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton · $43.4M
Steve Hilton: 66% of the buzz, 4% of the oddsTexas SenateJames Talarico vs. Ken Paxton · $19.7M
Maine SenateTroy Jackson vs. Susan Collins · $9.5M
Susan Collins: 59% of the buzz, 41% of the oddsOhio SenateSherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · $6.8M
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers · $6.2M
Mike Rogers: 73% of the buzz, 28% of the oddsIowa SenateJosh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · $4.6M
Josh Turek: 66% of the buzz, 44% of the oddsMost talked-about · over the past 24 hours
1Donald Trump800.2M interactions · 53% positive2%2JD Vance30.7M interactions · 57% positive22%3JD Vance30.7M interactions · 57% positive22%4Kathy Hochul24.5M interactions · 23% positive95%5James Talarico18.6M interactions · 65% positive65%6Marco Rubio14.9M interactions · 62% positive10%7Ken Paxton14.5M interactions · 59% positive36%8Angie Nixon11.9M interactions · 49% positive11%Right column: each candidate's market odds in their race.
Buzz rising · today vs. last week
×9.1Mike MazzeiOklahoma Governor · 446K interactions92%×5.9Barry MooreAlabama Senate · 159K interactions98%×5.7Jack ReedRhode Island Senate · 267K interactions99%×5.6Kathy HochulNew York Governor · 24.5M interactions95%×4.5Hannah PingreeMaine Governor · 547K interactions94%Growth in social interactions against the equal period before, with current market odds.
Live market map · 2026 races$239.4M traded · live trades will appear here
Where the money is
Every 2026 Senate, House and governor race, live
Each line runs from Washington to a race: Senate and governor races to the state, House races to a point inside it. Drag to look around. Its color is the party the markets favor, and the brighter the pulse, the more money has traded on it. When a trade happens on Polymarket, it flashes down that race's line as it happens.
Democrat favoredRepublican favoredIndependent
Live tradesConnecting to Polymarket…
- Trades on 2026 races appear here the moment they happen.
Most money traded
Where the money went
Every trade on both exchanges, added up over the past 24 hours.
$1.9Mtraded on 2026 races
11,346trades
$1.5M / $439KKalshi / Polymarket
$196Kon the 2028 race
Most money traded · 2026 races
Texas SenateD 65%$501KHouse controlD 93%$380KAlaska SenateD 72%$215KSenate controlD 64%$195KKansas SenateR 66%$125KTexas GovernorR 75%$66KNevada GovernorD 50%$57KOhio SenateD 61%$56KBiggest single trades
$131KTexas SenateNo Ken Paxton at 37¢ · Kalshi16h ago$89KAlaska SenateYes Democratic party at 71¢ · Kalshi3h ago$88KAlaska SenateYes Democratic party at 71¢ · Kalshi3h ago$53K2028 Democratic nominationNo Chris Murphy at 1¢ · Kalshi8h ago$53KHouse controlNo Republican Party at 8¢ · Kalshi13h ago$42KTexas SenateBuy James Talarico at 64¢ · Polymarket3h ago$41KHouse controlYes Democratic Party at 92¢ · Kalshi13h ago$32KSenate controlNo Republican Party at 37¢ · Kalshi16h agoThe 2026 map
Every Senate, governor and House race, shaded by how strongly the markets favor one party. Tap any state or district for its race page.
AKD 72$3.5MMED 59$9.5MVTNHD 86$2.0MWAIDR 93$394KMTR 91$782KNDMND 88$1.4MILD 98$52KWIMID 72$6.2MNYRID 99$50KMAD 98$72KORD 99$18KNVWYR 97$44KSDR 94$269KIAR 56$4.6MINOHD 61$6.8MPANJD 98$64KCTCAUTCOD 99$82KNER 73$2.6MMOKYR 97$208KWVR 98$39KVAD 99$55KMDDED 99$58KAZNMD 98$63KKSR 66$3.3MARR 93$212KTNR 96$100KNCD 96$2.7MSCR 87$2.7MDCOKR 98$67KLAR 93$125KMSR 90$359KALR 98$24KGAD 96$1.7MHITXD 65$19.7MFLR 89$1.3M
AKD 77$2.1MMED 94$109KVTR 78$627KNHR 94$241KWAIDR 98$34KMTNDMND 95$536KILD 97$131KWID 81$2.0MMID 94$612KNYD 95$1.9MRID 96$91KMAD 96$716KORD 74$339KNVD 50$1.2MWYR 97$17KSDR 97$36KIAD 85$944KINOHD 64$2.2MPAD 97$566KNJCTD 97$51KCAD 96$43.4MUTCOD 98$150KNER 91$78KMOKYWVVAMDD 98$57KDEAZD 89$715KNMD 95$116KKSR 73$191KARR 97$18KTNR 94$80KNCSCR 95$51KDCOKR 92$176KLAMSALR 92$151KGAR 53$1.4MHID 98$27KTXR 75$1.9MFLR 77$2.6M
California48 · 3
$2.7M tradedSafe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe RNo race
Biggest moves
Change in Democratic odds over the past week.
Oregon Governor▼ 10.885% → 74% Democratic · $20K in periodCO-03 (Colorado)▼ 10.437% → 27% Democratic · $7K in periodVA-01 (Virginia)▲ 8.140% → 48% Democratic · $27K in periodAZ-02 (Arizona)▼ 6.936% → 29% Democratic · $964 in periodNC-11 (North Carolina)▲ 6.663% → 69% Democratic · $49K in periodTX-35 (Texas)▼ 5.967% → 61% Democratic · $4K in periodClosest 2026 races
- Nevada GovernorD 50% $1.2M
- VA-01 (Virginia)R 52% $211K
- MI-04 (Michigan)R 52% $28K
- Georgia GovernorR 53% $1.4M
- FL-22 (Florida)D 54% $166K
- IA-02 (Iowa)D 54% $60K
- Iowa SenateR 56% $4.6M
- MI-07 (Michigan)D 59% $116K
Where the exchanges disagree
Largest gaps in Democratic odds between Kalshi and Polymarket.
- AZ-02 (Arizona)6.2 pts $28K
- CA-06 (California)5.0 pts $102K
- Nevada Governor5.0 pts $1.2M
- KY-04 (Kentucky)3.4 pts $88K
- MS-03 (Mississippi)3.3 pts $65K
- New Hampshire Governor3.0 pts $241K
Who wins the White House in 2028?
Each candidate's chance of winning the presidency, averaged across both exchanges, and the change over the past 30 days.
1J.D. Vance (R) $20.8M traded▼ 1.822%
2Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) $18.1M traded▲ 1.013%
3Jon Ossoff (D) $10.3M traded▲ 0.112%
4Marco Rubio (R) $18.0M traded▼ 1.410%
5Gavin Newsom (D) $22.8M traded▼ 0.68%
6Kamala Harris (D) $12.1M traded▲ 0.84%
Democratic nomination
- Jon Ossoff 17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16%
- Gavin Newsom 16%
Republican nomination
- J.D. Vance 54%
- Marco Rubio 19%
- Ron DeSantis 4%
Analysis
Every article →
Ballot measures on a knife's edge
State measures the markets see as closest to a coin flip.
- 49% pass $905
- 49% pass $5K
- 52% pass $9K
- 48% pass $5K
- 48% pass $529
- 53% pass $2K
Explore
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