2026 Governor
Iowa governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Rob Sand a 85% chance of winning the 2026 Iowa governor race over Republican Zach Lahn (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 85%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 83.7% / 16.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 85.4% / 14.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 22.3 points over the past 3 months, from 62% to 85%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Rob Sand (D) | 83.7% | $413K |
| Zach Lahn (R) | 16.3% | $409K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Rob Sand (D) | 85.4% | $56K |
| Zach Lahn (R) | 14.6% | $55K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Iowa governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Rob Sand a 85% chance of winning the 2026 Iowa governor race over Republican Zach Lahn (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 85%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 84%, Republicans 16%. Polymarket: Democrats 85%, Republicans 15%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 0.8 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Iowa races in 2026
- IA-01 HouseD 82%
- IA-02 HouseD 54%
- IA-03 HouseD 77%
- IA-04 HouseR 96%
- Iowa SenateR 56%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Iowa governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/iowa/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.