2026 Iowa · U.S. House
IA-03 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott a 76% chance of winning the 2026 race for IA-03 over Republican Zach Nunn (Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 77%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 76.1% / 23.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 76.5% / 23.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott (D) | 76.1% | $44K |
| Zach Nunn (R) | 23.9% | $25K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott (D) | 76.5% | $5K |
| Zach Nunn (R) | 23.5% | $6K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 IA-03 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott a 76% chance of winning the 2026 race for IA-03 over Republican Zach Nunn (Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 77%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 76%, Republicans 24%. Polymarket: Democrats 77%, Republicans 24%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Iowa races in 2026
- Iowa GovernorD 85%
- IA-01 HouseD 82%
- IA-02 HouseD 54%
- IA-04 HouseR 96%
- Iowa SenateR 56%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IA-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ia-3/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.