2026 New York · U.S. House
NY-17 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Cait Conley a 63% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-17 over Republican Mike Lawler (Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 64%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 62.5% / 37.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 63.5% / 36.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 7.5 points over the past 3 months, from 70% to 63%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley (D) | 62.5% | $80K |
| Mike Lawler (R) | 37.5% | $111K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley (D) | 63.5% | $22K |
| Mike Lawler (R) | 36.5% | $23K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NY-17 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Cait Conley a 63% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-17 over Republican Mike Lawler (Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 64%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 63%, Republicans 38%. Polymarket: Democrats 64%, Republicans 37%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 1.0 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New York races in 2026
- New York GovernorD 95%
- NY-01 HouseR 80%
- NY-10 HouseD 99%
- NY-11 HouseR 95%
- NY-12 HouseD 98%
- NY-13 HouseD 98%
- NY-14 HouseD 97%
- NY-15 HouseD 99%
- NY-16 HouseD 96%
- NY-18 HouseD 95%
- NY-19 HouseD 99%
- NY-02 HouseR 86%
- NY-20 HouseD 97%
- NY-21 HouseR 83%
- NY-22 HouseD 95%
- NY-23 HouseR 95%
- NY-24 HouseR 95%
- NY-25 HouseD 97%
- NY-26 HouseD 97%
- NY-03 HouseD 88%
- NY-04 HouseD 90%
- NY-05 HouseD 98%
- NY-06 HouseD 98%
- NY-07 HouseD 99%
- NY-08 HouseD 98%
- NY-09 HouseD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NY-17 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ny-17/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.