2026 New York · U.S. House
NY-19 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Josh Riley a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-19 over Republican Peter Oberacker (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 98.3% / 1.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 99.6% / 0.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 17.3 points over the past 3 months, from 82% to 99%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Riley (D) | 98.3% | $8K |
| Peter Oberacker (R) | 1.7% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Riley (D) | 99.6% | $16K |
| Peter Oberacker (R) | 0.4% | $17K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NY-19 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Josh Riley a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-19 over Republican Peter Oberacker (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 100%, Republicans 0%. The two exchanges differ by 1.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 2.8 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New York races in 2026
- New York GovernorD 95%
- NY-01 HouseR 81%
- NY-10 HouseD 99%
- NY-11 HouseR 95%
- NY-12 HouseD 98%
- NY-13 HouseD 98%
- NY-14 HouseD 97%
- NY-15 HouseD 99%
- NY-16 HouseD 96%
- NY-17 HouseD 63%
- NY-18 HouseD 95%
- NY-02 HouseR 86%
- NY-20 HouseD 97%
- NY-21 HouseR 83%
- NY-22 HouseD 95%
- NY-23 HouseR 95%
- NY-24 HouseR 95%
- NY-25 HouseD 97%
- NY-26 HouseD 97%
- NY-03 HouseD 88%
- NY-04 HouseD 90%
- NY-05 HouseD 98%
- NY-06 HouseD 98%
- NY-07 HouseD 98%
- NY-08 HouseD 98%
- NY-09 HouseD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NY-19 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ny-19/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.