2026 New York · U.S. House

NY-15 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ritchie Torres a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-15 over Republican Stylo Sapaskis (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Ritchie Torres (D)99%
Stylo Sapaskis (R) 1%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
97.5% / 2.5%
Polymarket (D / R)
99.5% / 0.5%
Gap between exchanges
1.9 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 0.8 points over the past 3 months, from 98% to 99%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Ritchie Torres (D)97.5%$252
Stylo Sapaskis (R)2.5%$2K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Ritchie Torres (D)99.5%$27K
Stylo Sapaskis (R)0.5%$21K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 NY-15 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ritchie Torres a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-15 over Republican Stylo Sapaskis (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 1.9 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other New York races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NY-15 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ny-15/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.