2026 New York · U.S. House

NY-04 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Laura Gillen a 90% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-04 over Republican Jeanine Driscoll (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 90%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Laura Gillen (D)90%
Jeanine Driscoll (R) 10%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
90.7% / 9.3%
Polymarket (D / R)
90.0% / 10.0%
Gap between exchanges
0.7 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 7.8 points over the past 3 months, from 83% to 90%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Laura Gillen (D)90.7%$12K
Jeanine Driscoll (R)9.3%$17K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Laura Gillen (D)90.0%$4K
Jeanine Driscoll (R)10.0%$3K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 NY-04 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Laura Gillen a 90% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-04 over Republican Jeanine Driscoll (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 90%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 91%, Republicans 9%. Polymarket: Democrats 90%, Republicans 10%. The two exchanges differ by 0.7 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have fallen 2.4 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other New York races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NY-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ny-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.