2026 New York · U.S. House
NY-25 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Joseph Morelle a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-25 over Republican Virginia McIntyre (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 96.6% / 3.4%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 96.8% / 3.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 0.5 points over the past 3 months, from 96% to 97%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morelle (D) | 96.6% | $1K |
| Virginia McIntyre (R) | 3.4% | $345 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morelle (D) | 96.8% | $31K |
| Virginia McIntyre (R) | 3.2% | $11K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NY-25 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Joseph Morelle a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-25 over Republican Virginia McIntyre (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New York races in 2026
- New York GovernorD 95%
- NY-01 HouseR 80%
- NY-10 HouseD 99%
- NY-11 HouseR 95%
- NY-12 HouseD 98%
- NY-13 HouseD 98%
- NY-14 HouseD 97%
- NY-15 HouseD 99%
- NY-16 HouseD 96%
- NY-17 HouseD 63%
- NY-18 HouseD 95%
- NY-19 HouseD 99%
- NY-02 HouseR 86%
- NY-20 HouseD 97%
- NY-21 HouseR 83%
- NY-22 HouseD 95%
- NY-23 HouseR 95%
- NY-24 HouseR 95%
- NY-26 HouseD 97%
- NY-03 HouseD 88%
- NY-04 HouseD 90%
- NY-05 HouseD 98%
- NY-06 HouseD 98%
- NY-07 HouseD 99%
- NY-08 HouseD 98%
- NY-09 HouseD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NY-25 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ny-25/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.