2026 New York · U.S. House

NY-23 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Nick Langworthy a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-23 over Democrat Aaron Gies (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Aaron Gies (D)5%
Nick Langworthy (R) 95%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
5.9% / 94.1%
Polymarket (D / R)
4.6% / 95.4%
Gap between exchanges
1.3 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 11.7 points over the past 3 months, from 17% to 5%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Nick Langworthy (R)94.1%$8K
Aaron Gies (D)5.9%$7K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Nick Langworthy (R)95.4%$18K
Aaron Gies (D)4.6%$16K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 NY-23 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Nick Langworthy a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for NY-23 over Democrat Aaron Gies (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. Polymarket: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. The two exchanges differ by 1.3 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other New York races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NY-23 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ny-23/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.