2026 Governor
New York governor race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Kathy Hochul a 95% chance of winning the 2026 New York governor race over Republican Bruce Blakeman (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 94.9% / 5.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 95.5% / 4.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.6 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Kathy Hochul (D) | 94.9% | $417K |
| Bruce Blakeman (R) | 5.1% | $1.4M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Kathy Hochul (D) | 95.5% | $55K |
| Bruce Blakeman (R) | 4.5% | $72K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 New York governor race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Kathy Hochul a 95% chance of winning the 2026 New York governor race over Republican Bruce Blakeman (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. Polymarket: Democrats 96%, Republicans 5%. The two exchanges differ by 0.6 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New York races in 2026
- NY-01 HouseR 83%
- NY-10 HouseD 99%
- NY-11 HouseR 95%
- NY-12 HouseD 98%
- NY-13 HouseD 98%
- NY-14 HouseD 97%
- NY-15 HouseD 98%
- NY-16 HouseD 97%
- NY-17 HouseD 63%
- NY-18 HouseD 95%
- NY-19 HouseD 99%
- NY-02 HouseR 86%
- NY-20 HouseD 97%
- NY-21 HouseR 83%
- NY-22 HouseD 95%
- NY-23 HouseR 95%
- NY-24 HouseR 95%
- NY-25 HouseD 98%
- NY-26 HouseD 97%
- NY-03 HouseD 88%
- NY-04 HouseD 90%
- NY-05 HouseD 98%
- NY-06 HouseD 98%
- NY-07 HouseD 98%
- NY-08 HouseD 98%
- NY-09 HouseD 98%
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Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 New York governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/new-york/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.