2026 Governor

Florida governor race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Byron Donalds a 77% chance of winning the 2026 Florida governor race over Democrat David Jolly (Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 78%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

David Jolly (D)23%
Byron Donalds (R) 77%
Market rating
Likely R
Kalshi (D / R)
23.3% / 76.7%
Polymarket (D / R)
22.5% / 77.5%
Gap between exchanges
0.8 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 2.2 points over the past 3 months, from 21% to 23%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Byron Donalds (R)76.7%$1.6M
David Jolly (D)23.3%$730K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Byron Donalds (R)77.5%$121K
David Jolly (D)22.5%$131K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 Florida governor race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Byron Donalds a 77% chance of winning the 2026 Florida governor race over Democrat David Jolly (Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 78%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 23%, Republicans 77%. Polymarket: Democrats 23%, Republicans 78%. The two exchanges differ by 0.8 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 0.9 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Florida races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Florida governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/florida/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.