2026 Florida · U.S. House

FL-07 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ryan Elijah a 67% chance of winning the 2026 race for FL-07 over Democrat Bale Dalton (Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 67%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Bale Dalton (D)33%
Ryan Elijah (R) 67%
Market rating
Lean R
Kalshi (D / R)
32.3% / 67.7%
Polymarket (D / R)
33.5% / 66.5%
Gap between exchanges
1.2 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged over the past 3 months, at 33%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Ryan Elijah (R)67.7%$21K
Bale Dalton (D)32.3%$16K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Ryan Elijah (R)66.5%$15K
Bale Dalton (D)33.5%$11K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 FL-07 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ryan Elijah a 67% chance of winning the 2026 race for FL-07 over Democrat Bale Dalton (Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 67%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 32%, Republicans 68%. Polymarket: Democrats 34%, Republicans 67%. The two exchanges differ by 1.2 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Florida races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 FL-07 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/fl-7/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.