2026 Florida · U.S. House

FL-23 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Lois Frankel a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for FL-23 over Republican Deborah Adeimy (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Lois Frankel (D)98%
Deborah Adeimy (R) 2%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
98.2% / 1.8%
Polymarket (D / R)
97.8% / 2.2%
Gap between exchanges
0.4 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 6.5 points over the past 3 months, from 92% to 98%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Lois Frankel (D)98.2%$9K
Deborah Adeimy (R)1.8%$7K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Lois Frankel (D)97.8%$13K
Deborah Adeimy (R)2.2%$13K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 FL-23 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Lois Frankel a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for FL-23 over Republican Deborah Adeimy (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 2.8 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Florida races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 FL-23 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/fl-23/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.