2026 Iowa · U.S. House

IA-02 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Lindsay James a 54% chance of winning the 2026 race for IA-02 over Republican Joe Mitchell (Kalshi 55%, Polymarket 54%). The race is rated a toss-up.

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Lindsay James (D)54%
Joe Mitchell (R) 46%
Market rating
Toss-up
Kalshi (D / R)
54.5% / 45.5%
Polymarket (D / R)
53.6% / 46.4%
Gap between exchanges
1.0 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Lindsay James (D)54.5%$19K
Joe Mitchell (R)45.5%$15K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Lindsay James (D)53.6%$10K
Joe Mitchell (R)46.4%$16K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 IA-02 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Lindsay James a 54% chance of winning the 2026 race for IA-02 over Republican Joe Mitchell (Kalshi 55%, Polymarket 54%). The race is rated a toss-up.

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 55%, Republicans 45%. Polymarket: Democrats 54%, Republicans 46%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Iowa races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IA-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ia-2/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.