2026 Iowa · U.S. House
IA-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Chris McGowan a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for IA-04 over Democrat David Dawson (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 4.0% / 96.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 4.5% / 95.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.5 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Chris McGowan (R) | 96.0% | $9K |
| Dave Dawson (D) | 4.0% | $4K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Chris McGowan (R) | 95.5% | $24K |
| David Dawson (D) | 4.5% | $20K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 IA-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Chris McGowan a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for IA-04 over Democrat David Dawson (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. Polymarket: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. The two exchanges differ by 0.5 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Iowa races in 2026
- Iowa GovernorD 85%
- IA-01 HouseD 82%
- IA-02 HouseD 54%
- IA-03 HouseD 76%
- Iowa SenateR 56%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IA-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ia-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.