2026 Senate
Iowa Senate race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ashley Hinson a 56% chance of winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race over Democrat Josh Turek (Kalshi 56%, Polymarket 57%). The race is rated a toss-up.
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Toss-up
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 44.5% / 55.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 43.2% / 56.8%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson (R) | 55.5% | $1.7M |
| Josh Turek (D) | 44.5% | $2.2M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson (R) | 56.8% | $329K |
| Josh Turek (D) | 43.2% | $380K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ashley Hinson a 56% chance of winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race over Democrat Josh Turek (Kalshi 56%, Polymarket 57%). The race is rated a toss-up.
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 45%, Republicans 56%. Polymarket: Democrats 43%, Republicans 57%. The two exchanges differ by 1.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Iowa races in 2026
- Iowa GovernorD 85%
- IA-01 HouseD 82%
- IA-02 HouseD 54%
- IA-03 HouseD 76%
- IA-04 HouseR 96%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Iowa Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/iowa/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.