2026 Senate
Maine Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Troy Jackson a 59% chance of winning the 2026 Maine Senate race over Republican Susan Collins (Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 59%). The race is rated a toss-up.
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Toss-up
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 59.5% / 40.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 59.1% / 40.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 6.8 points over the past 3 months, from 52% to 59%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson (D) | 59.5% | $3.5M |
| Susan Collins (R) | 40.5% | $3.8M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson (D) | 59.1% | $1.2M |
| Susan Collins (R) | 40.9% | $896K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Maine Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Troy Jackson a 59% chance of winning the 2026 Maine Senate race over Republican Susan Collins (Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 59%). The race is rated a toss-up.
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 60%, Republicans 41%. Polymarket: Democrats 59%, Republicans 41%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 3.5 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Maine races in 2026
- Maine GovernorD 94%
- ME-01 HouseD 97%
- ME-02 HouseR 65%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Maine Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/maine/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.