2026 Senate
Kansas Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Roger Marshall a 68% chance of winning the 2026 Kansas Senate race over Democrat Adam Hamilton (Kalshi 69%, Polymarket 68%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 31.5% / 68.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 31.8% / 68.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 14.6 points over the past 3 months, from 17% to 32%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Roger Marshall (R) | 68.5% | $964K |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | 31.5% | $1.5M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Roger Marshall (R) | 68.2% | $305K |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | 31.8% | $240K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Roger Marshall a 68% chance of winning the 2026 Kansas Senate race over Democrat Adam Hamilton (Kalshi 69%, Polymarket 68%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 32%, Republicans 69%. Polymarket: Democrats 32%, Republicans 68%. The two exchanges differ by 0.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 1.7 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Kansas races in 2026
- Kansas GovernorR 73%
- KS-01 HouseR 96%
- KS-02 HouseR 87%
- KS-03 HouseD 96%
- KS-04 HouseR 94%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Kansas Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/kansas/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.