2026 Senate
Texas Senate race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat James Talarico a 62% chance of winning the 2026 Texas Senate race over Republican Ken Paxton (Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 61%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 62.9% / 37.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 61.1% / 38.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.8 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 62.9% | $7.1M |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 37.1% | $10.0M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 61.1% | $847K |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 38.9% | $902K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Texas Senate race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat James Talarico a 62% chance of winning the 2026 Texas Senate race over Republican Ken Paxton (Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 61%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 63%, Republicans 37%. Polymarket: Democrats 61%, Republicans 39%. The two exchanges differ by 1.8 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Texas races in 2026
- Texas GovernorR 81%
- TX-01 HouseR 97%
- TX-10 HouseR 93%
- TX-11 HouseR 96%
- TX-12 HouseR 95%
- TX-13 HouseR 95%
- TX-14 HouseR 96%
- TX-15 HouseD 80%
- TX-16 HouseD 98%
- TX-17 HouseR 94%
- TX-18 HouseD 96%
- TX-19 HouseR 99%
- TX-02 HouseR 94%
- TX-20 HouseD 96%
- TX-21 HouseR 94%
- TX-22 HouseR 92%
- TX-23 HouseR 65%
- TX-24 HouseR 91%
- TX-25 HouseR 94%
- TX-26 HouseR 97%
- TX-27 HouseR 94%
- TX-28 HouseD 89%
- TX-29 HouseD 98%
- TX-03 HouseR 96%
- TX-30 HouseD 98%
- TX-31 HouseR 94%
- TX-32 HouseR 90%
- TX-33 HouseD 98%
- TX-34 HouseD 84%
- TX-35 HouseD 60%
- TX-36 HouseR 94%
- TX-37 HouseD 98%
- TX-38 HouseR 92%
- TX-04 HouseR 95%
- TX-05 HouseR 99%
- TX-06 HouseR 94%
- TX-07 HouseD 98%
- TX-08 HouseR 96%
- TX-09 HouseR 83%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Texas Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/texas/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.