2026 Senate
Michigan Senate race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 73% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race over Republican Mike Rogers (Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 73%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 72.5% / 27.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 72.5% / 27.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 72.5% | $2.1M |
| Mike Rogers (R) | 27.5% | $2.8M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 72.5% | $709K |
| Mike Rogers (R) | 27.5% | $540K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 73% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race over Republican Mike Rogers (Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 73%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 73%, Republicans 28%. Polymarket: Democrats 73%, Republicans 28%. The two exchanges differ by 0.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Michigan races in 2026
- Michigan GovernorD 92%
- MI-01 HouseR 92%
- MI-10 HouseD 66%
- MI-11 HouseD 97%
- MI-12 HouseD 99%
- MI-13 HouseD 99%
- MI-02 HouseR 99%
- MI-03 HouseD 97%
- MI-04 HouseR 52%
- MI-05 HouseR 93%
- MI-06 HouseD 98%
- MI-07 HouseD 58%
- MI-08 HouseD 94%
- MI-09 HouseR 96%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Michigan Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/michigan/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.