2026 Michigan · U.S. House
MI-02 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican John Moolenaar a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for MI-02 over Democrat Ben Ambrose (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 1.8% / 98.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 0.8% / 99.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| John Moolenaar (R) | 98.2% | $6K |
| Benjamin Ambrose (D) | 1.8% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| John Moolenaar (R) | 99.2% | $23K |
| Ben Ambrose (D) | 0.8% | $31K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MI-02 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican John Moolenaar a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for MI-02 over Democrat Ben Ambrose (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. Polymarket: Democrats 1%, Republicans 99%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Michigan races in 2026
- Michigan GovernorD 92%
- MI-01 HouseR 92%
- MI-10 HouseD 66%
- MI-11 HouseD 97%
- MI-12 HouseD 99%
- MI-13 HouseD 99%
- MI-03 HouseD 97%
- MI-04 HouseR 52%
- MI-05 HouseR 93%
- MI-06 HouseD 98%
- MI-07 HouseD 58%
- MI-08 HouseD 94%
- MI-09 HouseR 96%
- Michigan SenateD 73%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MI-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mi-2/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.