Midterm elections · 32 days to Election Day

2026 election odds: Senate, House and governors

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets say Democrats are 64% to control the Senate and Democrats are 93% to control the House. Parlay the People tracks 507 2026 races on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Updated Oct 2, 2026, 9:11 PM EDT

Closest races

The big picture

How the night could end up overall: who holds each chamber, how many seats Republicans end with, and the national House vote. Tap a bar for its exact odds.

Race ratings by market odds

Each race is rated from the leading party's odds. Click a segment to filter the board.

Every race

Click a column to sort, or a row to see every candidate's price on each market.

Ballot measures

The chance each state measure passes. Markets marked thin have a wide bid–ask spread or under $500 traded, so treat their odds as rough.

All 2026 races

Every race Parlay the People tracks this cycle, with the favored party and its average odds across both exchanges.

Senate controlD 64%
House controlD 93%

Senate (35)

AlabamaR 98%
AlaskaD 69%
ArkansasR 93%
ColoradoD 99%
DelawareD 99%
FloridaR 91%
GeorgiaD 97%
IdahoR 93%
IllinoisD 98%
IowaR 56%
KansasR 68%
KentuckyR 97%
LouisianaR 93%
MaineD 60%
MassachusettsD 98%
MichiganD 73%
MinnesotaD 88%
MississippiR 90%
MontanaR 91%
NebraskaR 73%
New HampshireD 86%
New JerseyD 98%
New MexicoD 98%
North CarolinaD 95%
OhioD 59%
OklahomaR 98%
OregonD 99%
Rhode IslandD 99%
South CarolinaR 87%
South DakotaR 92%
TennesseeR 98%
TexasD 62%
VirginiaD 98%
West VirginiaR 98%
WyomingR 97%

Governor (36)

AlabamaR 92%
AlaskaD 78%
ArizonaD 89%
ArkansasR 97%
CaliforniaD 95%
ColoradoD 98%
ConnecticutD 97%
FloridaR 77%
GeorgiaR 52%
HawaiiD 98%
IdahoR 97%
IllinoisD 97%
IowaD 85%
KansasR 73%
MaineD 94%
MarylandD 98%
MassachusettsD 96%
MichiganD 92%
MinnesotaD 95%
NebraskaR 91%
NevadaR 52%
New HampshireR 94%
New MexicoD 95%
New YorkD 95%
OhioD 63%
OklahomaR 92%
OregonD 73%
PennsylvaniaD 97%
Rhode IslandD 96%
South CarolinaR 95%
South DakotaR 97%
TennesseeR 94%
TexasR 81%
VermontR 79%
WisconsinD 81%
WyomingR 97%

House (434)

AK-ALR 85%
AL-01R 96%
AL-02R 75%
AL-03R 99%
AL-04R 99%
AL-05R 95%
AL-06R 97%
AL-07D 99%
AR-01R 97%
AR-02R 82%
AR-03R 97%
AR-04R 96%
AZ-01D 79%
AZ-02R 68%
AZ-03D 99%
AZ-04D 98%
AZ-05R 90%
AZ-06D 83%
AZ-07D 99%
AZ-08R 84%
AZ-09R 95%
CA-01D 93%
CA-02D 98%
CA-03D 97%
CA-04D 97%
CA-05R 91%
CA-06D 94%
CA-07D 97%
CA-08D 97%
CA-09D 97%
CA-10D 96%
CA-11D 99%
CA-12D 99%
CA-13D 98%
CA-14D 100%
CA-15D 98%
CA-16D 98%
CA-17D 98%
CA-18D 98%
CA-19D 98%
CA-20R 98%
CA-21D 96%
CA-22D 92%
CA-23R 94%
CA-24D 98%
CA-25D 95%
CA-26D 95%
CA-27D 96%
CA-28D 97%
CA-29D 96%
CA-30D 97%
CA-31D 97%
CA-32D 97%
CA-33D 95%
CA-34D 100%
CA-35D 99%
CA-36D 97%
CA-37D 97%
CA-38D 98%
CA-39D 97%
CA-41D 96%
CA-42D 97%
CA-43D 97%
CA-44D 98%
CA-45D 94%
CA-46D 96%
CA-47D 95%
CA-48D 91%
CA-49D 97%
CA-50D 96%
CA-51D 97%
CA-52D 96%
CO-01D 98%
CO-02D 98%
CO-03R 74%
CO-04R 70%
CO-05R 72%
CO-06D 97%
CO-07D 96%
CO-08D 85%
CT-01D 97%
CT-02D 97%
CT-03D 96%
CT-04D 98%
CT-05D 96%
DE-ALD 97%
FL-01R 97%
FL-02R 91%
FL-03R 94%
FL-04R 86%
FL-05R 92%
FL-06R 94%
FL-07R 67%
FL-08R 94%
FL-09R 71%
FL-10D 97%
FL-11R 89%
FL-12R 87%
FL-13R 75%
FL-14D 64%
FL-15R 92%
FL-16R 84%
FL-17R 95%
FL-18R 92%
FL-19R 95%
FL-20D 97%
FL-21R 90%
FL-22D 52%
FL-23D 98%
FL-24D 98%
FL-25D 74%
FL-26R 86%
FL-27R 62%
FL-28R 94%
GA-01R 92%
GA-02D 94%
GA-03R 96%
GA-04D 98%
GA-05D 99%
GA-06D 97%
GA-07R 94%
GA-08R 95%
GA-09R 95%
GA-10R 94%
GA-11R 95%
GA-12R 93%
GA-13D 97%
GA-14R 96%
HI-01D 97%
HI-02D 96%
IA-01D 82%
IA-02D 54%
IA-03D 76%
IA-04R 96%
ID-01R 96%
ID-02R 96%
IL-01D 96%
IL-02D 97%
IL-03D 97%
IL-04D 95%
IL-05D 97%
IL-06D 98%
IL-07D 98%
IL-08D 94%
IL-09D 96%
IL-10D 97%
IL-11D 98%
IL-12R 97%
IL-13D 96%
IL-14D 98%
IL-15R 96%
IL-16R 96%
IL-17D 98%
IN-01D 99%
IN-02R 97%
IN-03R 95%
IN-04R 95%
IN-05R 85%
IN-06R 95%
IN-07D 99%
IN-08R 96%
IN-09R 94%
KS-01R 96%
KS-02R 87%
KS-03D 96%
KS-04R 94%
KY-01R 96%
KY-02R 96%
KY-03D 97%
KY-04R 96%
KY-05R 97%
KY-06R 75%
LA-01R 97%
LA-02D 99%
LA-03R 97%
LA-04R 94%
LA-05R 94%
LA-06R 94%
MA-01D 97%
MA-02D 96%
MA-03D 98%
MA-04D 98%
MA-05D 98%
MA-06D 97%
MA-07D 98%
MA-08D 98%
MA-09D 97%
MD-01R 89%
MD-02D 97%
MD-03D 96%
MD-04D 99%
MD-05D 97%
MD-06D 97%
MD-07D 97%
MD-08D 98%
ME-01D 97%
ME-02R 65%
MI-01R 92%
MI-02R 99%
MI-03D 97%
MI-04R 52%
MI-05R 93%
MI-06D 98%
MI-07D 58%
MI-08D 94%
MI-09R 96%
MI-10D 66%
MI-11D 97%
MI-12D 99%
MI-13D 99%
MN-01R 78%
MN-02D 94%
MN-03D 97%
MN-04D 96%
MN-05D 98%
MN-06R 91%
MN-07R 94%
MN-08R 87%
MO-01D 98%
MO-02R 74%
MO-03R 96%
MO-04R 94%
MO-05D 97%
MO-06R 95%
MO-07R 97%
MO-08R 98%
MS-01R 96%
MS-02D 97%
MS-03R 99%
MS-04R 97%
MT-01R 67%
MT-02R 95%
NC-01D 61%
NC-02D 99%
NC-03R 85%
NC-04D 96%
NC-05R 87%
NC-06R 92%
NC-07R 83%
NC-08R 96%
NC-09R 77%
NC-10R 94%
NC-11D 65%
NC-12D 98%
NC-13R 84%
NC-14R 88%
ND-ALR 98%
NE-01R 82%
NE-02D 92%
NE-03R 98%
NH-01D 96%
NH-02D 95%
NJ-01D 96%
NJ-02R 80%
NJ-03D 97%
NJ-04R 96%
NJ-05D 98%
NJ-06D 97%
NJ-07D 89%
NJ-08D 97%
NJ-09D 97%
NJ-10D 98%
NJ-11D 96%
NJ-12D 96%
NM-01D 97%
NM-02D 95%
NM-03D 97%
NV-01D 95%
NV-02R 77%
NV-03D 94%
NV-04D 97%
NY-01R 83%
NY-02R 86%
NY-03D 88%
NY-04D 90%
NY-05D 98%
NY-06D 98%
NY-07D 98%
NY-08D 98%
NY-09D 98%
NY-10D 99%
NY-11R 95%
NY-12D 98%
NY-13D 98%
NY-14D 97%
NY-15D 98%
NY-16D 97%
NY-17D 63%
NY-18D 95%
NY-19D 99%
NY-20D 97%
NY-21R 83%
NY-22D 95%
NY-23R 95%
NY-24R 95%
NY-25D 98%
NY-26D 97%
OH-01D 86%
OH-02R 98%
OH-03D 98%
OH-04R 95%
OH-05R 94%
OH-06R 95%
OH-07D 80%
OH-08R 91%
OH-09D 71%
OH-10R 86%
OH-11D 98%
OH-12R 95%
OH-13D 98%
OH-14R 95%
OH-15R 76%
OK-01R 94%
OK-02R 98%
OK-03R 99%
OK-04R 98%
OK-05R 87%
OR-01D 97%
OR-02R 95%
OR-03D 97%
OR-04D 94%
OR-05D 97%
OR-06D 97%
PA-01R 65%
PA-02D 98%
PA-03D 98%
PA-04D 97%
PA-05D 98%
PA-06D 97%
PA-07D 85%
PA-08D 68%
PA-09R 97%
PA-10D 81%
PA-11R 94%
PA-12D 96%
PA-13R 96%
PA-14R 98%
PA-15R 96%
PA-16R 93%
PA-17D 97%
RI-01D 98%
RI-02D 98%
SC-01R 74%
SC-02R 90%
SC-03R 97%
SC-04R 98%
SC-05R 92%
SC-06D 97%
SC-07R 95%
SD-ALR 96%
TN-01R 97%
TN-02R 95%
TN-03R 96%
TN-04R 98%
TN-05R 91%
TN-06R 95%
TN-07R 95%
TN-08R 95%
TN-09R 86%
TX-01R 97%
TX-02R 94%
TX-03R 96%
TX-04R 95%
TX-05R 99%
TX-06R 94%
TX-07D 98%
TX-08R 96%
TX-09R 83%
TX-10R 93%
TX-11R 96%
TX-12R 95%
TX-13R 95%
TX-14R 96%
TX-15D 80%
TX-16D 98%
TX-17R 94%
TX-18D 96%
TX-19R 99%
TX-20D 96%
TX-21R 94%
TX-22R 92%
TX-23R 65%
TX-24R 91%
TX-25R 94%
TX-26R 97%
TX-27R 94%
TX-28D 89%
TX-29D 98%
TX-30D 98%
TX-31R 94%
TX-32R 90%
TX-33D 98%
TX-34D 84%
TX-35D 60%
TX-36R 94%
TX-37D 98%
TX-38R 92%
UT-01D 96%
UT-02R 95%
UT-03R 95%
UT-04R 96%
VA-01R 54%
VA-02D 82%
VA-03D 97%
VA-04D 98%
VA-05R 79%
VA-06R 92%
VA-07D 96%
VA-08D 98%
VA-09R 97%
VA-10D 96%
VA-11D 99%
VT-ALD 99%
WA-01D 99%
WA-02D 96%
WA-03D 90%
WA-04R 93%
WA-05R 82%
WA-06D 99%
WA-07D 98%
WA-08D 98%
WA-09D 97%
WA-10D 97%
WI-01R 67%
WI-02D 99%
WI-03D 73%
WI-04D 99%
WI-05R 96%
WI-06R 94%
WI-07R 94%
WI-08R 88%
WV-01R 98%
WV-02R 97%
WY-ALR 99%

Questions about 2026

Who will win the Senate in 2026?

Democrats are favored, at 64% on average across Kalshi and Polymarket as of Oct 2, 2026.

Who will win the House in 2026?

Democrats are favored, at 93% on average across Kalshi and Polymarket as of Oct 2, 2026.

What are the closest 2026 races?

By market odds, the closest are FL-22 (D 52%), Georgia governor (R 52%), MI-04 (R 52%), Nevada governor (R 52%), IA-02 (D 54%).

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days away.

Data

2026 data (JSON)2026 races (CSV)Methodology API docs