2026 Virginia · U.S. House
VA-05 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican John McGuire a 79% chance of winning the 2026 race for VA-05 over Democrat Tom Perriello (Kalshi 81%, Polymarket 78%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 19.5% / 80.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 21.7% / 78.3%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| John McGuire (R) | 80.5% | $38K |
| Tom Perriello (D) | 19.5% | $43K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| John McGuire (R) | 78.3% | $54K |
| Tom Perriello (D) | 21.7% | $57K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 VA-05 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican John McGuire a 79% chance of winning the 2026 race for VA-05 over Democrat Tom Perriello (Kalshi 81%, Polymarket 78%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 20%, Republicans 81%. Polymarket: Democrats 22%, Republicans 78%. The two exchanges differ by 2.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Virginia races in 2026
- VA-01 HouseR 54%
- VA-10 HouseD 96%
- VA-11 HouseD 99%
- VA-02 HouseD 82%
- VA-03 HouseD 97%
- VA-04 HouseD 98%
- VA-06 HouseR 92%
- VA-07 HouseD 96%
- VA-08 HouseD 98%
- VA-09 HouseR 97%
- Virginia SenateD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 VA-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/va-5/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.