2026 Virginia · U.S. House

VA-11 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat James Walkinshaw a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for VA-11 over Republican Arthur Purves (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

James Walkinshaw (D)99%
Arthur Purves (R) 1%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
98.9% / 1.1%
Polymarket (D / R)
98.6% / 1.4%
Gap between exchanges
0.3 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 1.5 points over the past 3 months, from 97% to 99%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
James Walkinshaw (D)98.9%$2K
Arthur Purves (R)1.1%$2K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
James Walkinshaw (D)98.6%$17K
Arthur Purves (R)1.4%$12K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 VA-11 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat James Walkinshaw a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for VA-11 over Republican Arthur Purves (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 0.3 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have fallen 0.5 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Virginia races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 VA-11 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/va-11/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.