2026 Virginia · U.S. House

VA-09 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Morgan Griffith a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for VA-09 over Democrat Joy Powers (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Joy Powers (D)3%
Morgan Griffith (R) 97%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
3.0% / 97.0%
Polymarket (D / R)
2.2% / 97.8%
Gap between exchanges
0.8 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 2.2 points over the past 3 months, from 5% to 3%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Morgan Griffith (R)97.0%$5K
Joy Powers (D)3.0%$3K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Morgan Griffith (R)97.8%$45K
Joy Powers (D)2.2%$22K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 VA-09 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Morgan Griffith a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for VA-09 over Democrat Joy Powers (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. Polymarket: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. The two exchanges differ by 0.8 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have fallen 1.4 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Virginia races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 VA-09 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/va-9/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.