U.S. President · 767 days to Election Day
2028 presidential election odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election. The single most likely winner is JD Vance at 23%, with Jon Ossoff leading the Democratic nomination (17%) and J.D. Vance leading the Republican nomination (54%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 58.5% / 41.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 65.2% / 34.8%
- Election Day
- Nov 7, 2028
Which party wins: price history
Who will win the presidency
| Candidate | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 23.0% | — | 23.0% | |
| J.D. Vance (R) | 21.2% | 21.2% | — | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) | 12.5% | 10.4% | 14.7% | |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.1% | |
| Marco Rubio (R) | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | |
| Gavin Newsom (D) | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | |
| Kamala Harris (D) | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | |
| Josh Shapiro (D) | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | |
| Pete Buttigieg (D) | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | |
| Andy Beshear (D) | 2.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | |
| Ron DeSantis (R) | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | |
| Mark Kelly (D) | 2.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | |
| Donald J. Trump (R) | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson (D) | 2.0% | — | 2.0% | |
| Tucker Carlson (R) | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
Kalshi market ↗Polymarket market ↗Polymarket volume $712.0M
Democratic nominee
| Candidate | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 17.2% | 17.6% | 16.9% | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) | 16.4% | 14.4% | 18.3% | |
| Gavin Newsom (D) | 16.0% | 14.4% | 17.6% | |
| Kamala Harris (D) | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | |
| Josh Shapiro (D) | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | |
| Pete Buttigieg (D) | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | |
| Andy Beshear (D) | 4.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | |
| Mark Kelly (D) | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | |
| James Talarico (D) | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | |
| Rahm Emanuel (D) | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | |
| Wes Moore (D) | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | |
| J.B. Pritzker (D) | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
Kalshi market ↗Polymarket market ↗Polymarket volume $1287.0M
Republican nominee
| Candidate | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance (R) | 53.8% | 48.8% | 58.7% | |
| Marco Rubio (R) | 18.6% | 19.2% | 18.1% | |
| Ron DeSantis (R) | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | |
| Tucker Carlson (R) | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | |
| Ted Cruz (R) | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. (R) | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | |
| Donald J. Trump (R) | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
| Ivanka Trump (R) | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | |
| Thomas Massie (R) | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | |
| Brian Kemp (R) | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| Glenn Youngkin (R) | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Kalshi market ↗Polymarket market ↗Polymarket volume $709.3M
Questions about 2028
Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election. The single most likely winner is JD Vance at 23%, with Jon Ossoff leading the Democratic nomination (17%) and J.D. Vance leading the Republican nomination (54%).
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee?
Markets favor Jon Ossoff (17%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (16%), Gavin Newsom (16%) as of Oct 2, 2026.
Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee?
Markets favor J.D. Vance (54%), Marco Rubio (19%), Ron DeSantis (4%) as of Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2028 presidential election?
Election Day is Nov 7, 2028, 767 days away.
All 2028 races2028 data (JSON)Party odds history (JSON)Methodology
Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties. Nothing here is betting or investment advice. Parlay the People is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.