Presidential election year · 767 days to Election Day
2028 election odds: president, Senate and governors
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets say Democrats are 62% to win the presidency, Democrats are 55% to control the Senate and Democrats are 74% to control the House. Parlay the People tracks 45 2028 races on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus the presidential race.
Updated
2028 presidential election odds →D 62% · R 38%
Closest races
- Ohio SenateR 53%
- Vermont GovernorR 56%
- Nevada SenateD 60%
- Wisconsin SenateD 61%
- North Carolina SenateD 62%
- Iowa SenateR 63%
- Pennsylvania SenateD 66%
- Kansas SenateR 67%
- North Carolina GovernorD 67%
- Georgia SenateD 68%
- Alaska SenateR 75%
- South Carolina SenateR 83%
The big picture
How the night could end up overall: who holds each chamber, how many seats Republicans end with, and the national House vote. Tap a bar for its exact odds.
Race ratings by market odds
Each race is rated from the leading party's odds. Click a segment to filter the board.
Every race
Click a column to sort, or a row to see every candidate's price on each market.
Ballot measures
The chance each state measure passes. Markets marked thin have a wide bid–ask spread or under $500 traded, so treat their odds as rough.
All 2028 races
Every race Parlay the People tracks this cycle, with the favored party and its average odds across both exchanges.
- Senate controlD 55%
- House controlD 74%
Senate (33)
- AlabamaR 95%
- AlaskaR 75%
- ArizonaD 85%
- ArkansasR 93%
- CaliforniaD 91%
- ColoradoD 92%
- ConnecticutD 96%
- FloridaR 84%
- GeorgiaD 68%
- HawaiiD 89%
- IdahoR 88%
- IllinoisD 95%
- IndianaR 88%
- IowaR 63%
- KansasR 67%
- LouisianaR 87%
- MarylandD 91%
- MissouriR 88%
- NevadaD 60%
- New HampshireD 90%
- New YorkD 93%
- North CarolinaD 62%
- North DakotaR 86%
- OhioR 53%
- OklahomaR 91%
- OregonD 93%
- PennsylvaniaD 66%
- South CarolinaR 83%
- South DakotaR 94%
- UtahR 83%
- VermontD 95%
- WashingtonD 95%
- WisconsinD 61%
Governor (10)
- DelawareD 88%
- IndianaR 89%
- MissouriR 94%
- MontanaR 85%
- North CarolinaD 67%
- North DakotaR 85%
- UtahR 88%
- VermontR 56%
- WashingtonD 95%
- West VirginiaR 89%
Questions about 2028
Who will win the Senate in 2028?
Democrats are favored, at 55% on average across Kalshi and Polymarket as of Oct 2, 2026.
Who will win the House in 2028?
Democrats are favored, at 74% on average across Kalshi and Polymarket as of Oct 2, 2026.
What are the closest 2028 races?
By market odds, the closest are Ohio Senate (R 53%), Vermont governor (R 56%), Nevada Senate (D 60%), Wisconsin Senate (D 61%), North Carolina Senate (D 62%).
When is the 2028 election?
Election Day is Nov 7, 2028, 767 days away.