2028 Senate
Hawaii Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Democrat a 89% chance of winning the 2028 Hawaii Senate race (Kalshi 89%; one exchange lists this race).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 88.7% / 11.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- Not listed
- Gap between exchanges
- —
- Election Day
- Nov 7, 2028 (767 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 3.2 points over the past 3 months, from 86% to 89%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic candidate | 88.7% | $3K |
| Republican candidate | 11.3% | $4K |
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn't list this race.
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2028 Hawaii Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Democrat a 89% chance of winning the 2028 Hawaii Senate race (Kalshi 89%; one exchange lists this race).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 89%, Republicans 11%.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2028 election?
Election Day is Nov 7, 2028, 767 days from now.
Closest Senate races in 2028
- OhioR 53%
- NevadaD 60%
- WisconsinD 61%
- North CarolinaD 62%
- IowaR 63%
- KansasR 67%
- GeorgiaD 68%
- PennsylvaniaD 69%
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2028 races (JSON)All 2028 races (CSV)2028 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2028 Hawaii Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2028/senate/hawaii/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.