2028 Senate
Arkansas Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Republican a 93% chance of winning the 2028 Arkansas Senate race (Kalshi 93%; one exchange lists this race).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 6.8% / 93.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- Not listed
- Gap between exchanges
- —
- Election Day
- Nov 7, 2028 (767 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 1.4 points over the past 3 months, from 8% to 7%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican candidate | 93.2% | $1K |
| Democratic candidate | 6.8% | $249 |
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn't list this race.
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2028 Arkansas Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Republican a 93% chance of winning the 2028 Arkansas Senate race (Kalshi 93%; one exchange lists this race).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 0.9 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2028 election?
Election Day is Nov 7, 2028, 767 days from now.
Closest Senate races in 2028
- OhioR 53%
- NevadaD 60%
- WisconsinD 61%
- North CarolinaD 62%
- IowaR 63%
- KansasR 67%
- GeorgiaD 68%
- PennsylvaniaD 69%
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2028 races (JSON)All 2028 races (CSV)2028 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2028 Arkansas Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2028/senate/arkansas/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.