2026 Senate
Alaska Senate race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Mary Peltola a 69% chance of winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race over Republican Dan Sullivan (Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 71%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 67.5% / 32.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 71.4% / 28.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 3.9 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic candidate | 67.5% | $712K |
| Republican candidate | 32.5% | $1.4M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | 71.4% | $681K |
| Dan Sullivan (R) | 28.4% | $320K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Mary Peltola a 69% chance of winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race over Republican Dan Sullivan (Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 71%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 68%, Republicans 33%. Polymarket: Democrats 71%, Republicans 28%. The two exchanges differ by 3.9 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Alaska races in 2026
- Alaska GovernorD 78%
- AK-AL HouseR 85%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Alaska Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/alaska/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.