2026 Alaska · U.S. House
AK-AL House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Republican a 85% chance of winning the 2026 race for AK-AL (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 85%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 2.6% / 84.8%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 2.4% / 85.3%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 12.8 points over the past 3 months, from 15% to 2%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican candidate | 84.8% | $28K |
| Bill Hill (I) | 12.6% | $7K |
| Democratic candidate | 2.6% | $28K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican candidate | 85.3% | $21K |
| Bill Hill (I) | 12.2% | $601 |
| Democratic candidate | 2.4% | $36K |
| Jim McDermott | 0.2% | $250 |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 AK-AL House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Republican a 85% chance of winning the 2026 race for AK-AL (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 85%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 3%, Republicans 85%. Polymarket: Democrats 2%, Republicans 85%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 0.7 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Alaska races in 2026
- Alaska GovernorD 78%
- Alaska SenateD 69%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AK-AL House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ak-al/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.