2026 Governor
Alaska governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins a 78% chance of winning the 2026 Alaska governor race over Republican Bernadette Wilson (Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 79%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 77.1% / 22.4%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 79.4% / 20.1%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 36.6 points over the past 3 months, from 42% to 78%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | 76.2% | $121K |
| Bernadette Wilson (R) | 17.3% | $58K |
| Dave Bronson (R) | 2.8% | $45K |
| Treg Taylor (R) | 1.3% | $80K |
| Tom Begich (D) | 0.8% | $246K |
| Bill Walker (I) | 0.5% | $10K |
| Lesil McGuire (R) | 0.5% | $4K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | 78.2% | $95K |
| Bernadette Wilson (R) | 18.0% | $185K |
| Tom Begich (D) | 1.1% | $166K |
| David Bronson (R) | 1.0% | $27K |
| Treg Taylor (R) | 0.3% | $40K |
| Shelley Hughes (R) | 0.2% | $17K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Alaska governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins a 78% chance of winning the 2026 Alaska governor race over Republican Bernadette Wilson (Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 79%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 77%, Republicans 22%. Polymarket: Democrats 79%, Republicans 20%. The two exchanges differ by 2.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 1.5 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Alaska races in 2026
- AK-AL HouseR 85%
- Alaska SenateD 69%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Alaska governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/alaska/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.