2026 Governor
Vermont governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Phil Scott a 79% chance of winning the 2026 Vermont governor race over Democrat Amanda Janoo (Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 80%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 22.5% / 77.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 20.1% / 79.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 10.2 points over the past 3 months, from 11% to 21%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Phil Scott (R) | 77.5% | $239K |
| Amanda Janoo (D) | 22.5% | $212K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Phil Scott (R) | 79.9% | $85K |
| Amanda Janoo (D) | 20.1% | $79K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Vermont governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Phil Scott a 79% chance of winning the 2026 Vermont governor race over Democrat Amanda Janoo (Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 80%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 23%, Republicans 78%. Polymarket: Democrats 20%, Republicans 80%. The two exchanges differ by 2.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 4.8 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
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Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Vermont governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/vermont/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.