2026 Vermont · U.S. House
VT-AL House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Becca Balint a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for VT-AL over Republican Gerald Malloy (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 98.9% / 1.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.5% / 1.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Becca Balint (D) | 98.9% | $767 |
| Gerald Malloy (R) | 1.1% | $5K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Becca Balint (D) | 98.5% | $14K |
| Gerald Malloy (R) | 1.5% | $37K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 VT-AL House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Becca Balint a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for VT-AL over Republican Gerald Malloy (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 0.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Vermont races in 2026
- Vermont GovernorR 79%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 VT-AL House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/vt-al/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.