2026 Governor
Wisconsin governor race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat David Crowley a 81% chance of winning the 2026 Wisconsin governor race over Republican Tom Tiffany (Kalshi 80%, Polymarket 82%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 79.9% / 20.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 81.5% / 18.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.6 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| David Crowley (D) | 79.9% | $491K |
| Tom Tiffany (R) | 20.1% | $790K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| David Crowley (D) | 81.5% | $359K |
| Tom Tiffany (R) | 18.5% | $342K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Wisconsin governor race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat David Crowley a 81% chance of winning the 2026 Wisconsin governor race over Republican Tom Tiffany (Kalshi 80%, Polymarket 82%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 80%, Republicans 20%. Polymarket: Democrats 82%, Republicans 19%. The two exchanges differ by 1.6 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Wisconsin races in 2026
- WI-01 HouseR 67%
- WI-02 HouseD 99%
- WI-03 HouseD 73%
- WI-04 HouseD 99%
- WI-05 HouseR 96%
- WI-06 HouseR 94%
- WI-07 HouseR 94%
- WI-08 HouseR 88%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Wisconsin governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/wisconsin/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.