2026 Wisconsin · U.S. House

WI-05 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Scott Fitzgerald a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for WI-05 over Democrat Andrew Beck (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Andrew Beck (D)4%
Scott Fitzgerald (R) 96%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
4.6% / 95.4%
Polymarket (D / R)
3.7% / 96.3%
Gap between exchanges
1.0 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 9.7 points over the past 3 months, from 14% to 4%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Scott Fitzgerald (R)95.4%$4K
Andrew Beck (D)4.6%$5K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Scott Fitzgerald (R)96.3%$33K
Andrew Beck (D)3.7%$27K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 WI-05 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Scott Fitzgerald a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for WI-05 over Democrat Andrew Beck (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. Polymarket: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Wisconsin races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 WI-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/wi-5/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.