2026 Wisconsin · U.S. House
WI-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Gwen Moore a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for WI-04 over Republican Tim Rogers (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 99.1% / 0.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.6% / 1.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.5 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Gwen Moore (D) | 99.1% | $305 |
| Tim Rogers (R) | 0.9% | $736 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Gwen Moore (D) | 98.6% | $14K |
| Tim Rogers (R) | 1.4% | $23K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 WI-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Gwen Moore a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for WI-04 over Republican Tim Rogers (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 0.5 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Wisconsin races in 2026
- Wisconsin GovernorD 81%
- WI-01 HouseR 67%
- WI-02 HouseD 99%
- WI-03 HouseD 73%
- WI-05 HouseR 96%
- WI-06 HouseR 94%
- WI-07 HouseR 94%
- WI-08 HouseR 88%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 WI-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/wi-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.