2026 Wisconsin · U.S. House

WI-08 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tony Wied a 88% chance of winning the 2026 race for WI-08 over Democrat Rick Crosson (Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 88%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Rick Crosson (D)12%
Tony Wied (R) 88%
Market rating
Likely R
Kalshi (D / R)
12.2% / 87.8%
Polymarket (D / R)
11.6% / 88.4%
Gap between exchanges
0.6 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 9.7 points over the past 3 months, from 22% to 12%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Tony Wied (R)87.8%$13K
Rick Crosson (D)12.2%$7K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Tony Wied (R)88.4%$18K
Rick Crosson (D)11.6%$8K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 WI-08 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tony Wied a 88% chance of winning the 2026 race for WI-08 over Democrat Rick Crosson (Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 88%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 12%, Republicans 88%. Polymarket: Democrats 12%, Republicans 88%. The two exchanges differ by 0.6 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 3.3 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Wisconsin races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 WI-08 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/wi-8/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.