2026 Governor

Oregon governor race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Tina Kotek a 73% chance of winning the 2026 Oregon governor race over Republican Christine Drazan (Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 74%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Tina Kotek (D)73%
Christine Drazan (R) 27%
Market rating
Lean D
Kalshi (D / R)
72.8% / 27.2%
Polymarket (D / R)
73.9% / 26.1%
Gap between exchanges
1.1 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 13.5 points over the past 3 months, from 87% to 73%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Tina Kotek (D)72.8%$85K
Christine Drazan (R)27.2%$178K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Tina Kotek (D)73.9%$36K
Christine Drazan (R)26.1%$37K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 Oregon governor race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Tina Kotek a 73% chance of winning the 2026 Oregon governor race over Republican Christine Drazan (Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 74%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 73%, Republicans 27%. Polymarket: Democrats 74%, Republicans 26%. The two exchanges differ by 1.1 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have fallen 11.5 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Oregon governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/oregon/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.