2026 Oregon · U.S. House
OR-04 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Val Hoyle a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for OR-04 over Republican Monique DeSpain (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 93.2% / 6.8%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 95.5% / 4.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 0.9 points over the past 3 months, from 93% to 94%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Val Hoyle (D) | 93.2% | $316 |
| Monique DeSpain (R) | 6.8% | $983 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Val Hoyle (D) | 95.5% | $16K |
| Monique DeSpain (R) | 4.5% | $11K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 OR-04 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Val Hoyle a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for OR-04 over Republican Monique DeSpain (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 93%, Republicans 7%. Polymarket: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. The two exchanges differ by 2.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Oregon races in 2026
- Oregon GovernorD 73%
- OR-01 HouseD 97%
- OR-02 HouseR 95%
- OR-03 HouseD 97%
- OR-05 HouseD 97%
- OR-06 HouseD 97%
- Oregon SenateD 99%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 OR-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/or-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.