2026 Senate

Oregon Senate race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jeff Merkley a 99% chance of winning the 2026 Oregon Senate race over Republican David Brock Smith (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Jeff Merkley (D)99%
David Brock Smith (R) 1%
Market rating
Safe D
Kalshi (D / R)
99.3% / 0.7%
Polymarket (D / R)
98.0% / 2.0%
Gap between exchanges
1.3 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Jeff Merkley (D)99.3%$5K
David Brock Smith (R)0.7%$7K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Jeff Merkley (D)98.0%$4K
David Brock Smith (R)2.0%$3K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 Oregon Senate race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jeff Merkley a 99% chance of winning the 2026 Oregon Senate race over Republican David Brock Smith (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 1.3 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Oregon races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Oregon Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/oregon/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.