2026 Senate · special election
Ohio Senate race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Sherrod Brown a 59% chance of winning the 2026 Ohio Senate race over Republican Jon Husted (Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 59%). The race is rated a toss-up.
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Toss-up
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 59.5% / 40.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 58.9% / 41.1%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.6 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sherrod Brown (D) | 59.5% | $2.9M |
| Jon Husted (R) | 40.5% | $2.8M |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sherrod Brown (D) | 58.9% | $595K |
| Jon Husted (R) | 41.1% | $423K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Ohio Senate race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Sherrod Brown a 59% chance of winning the 2026 Ohio Senate race over Republican Jon Husted (Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 59%). The race is rated a toss-up.
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 60%, Republicans 41%. Polymarket: Democrats 59%, Republicans 41%. The two exchanges differ by 0.6 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Ohio races in 2026
- Ohio GovernorD 63%
- OH-01 HouseD 86%
- OH-10 HouseR 86%
- OH-11 HouseD 98%
- OH-12 HouseR 95%
- OH-13 HouseD 98%
- OH-14 HouseR 95%
- OH-15 HouseR 76%
- OH-02 HouseR 98%
- OH-03 HouseD 98%
- OH-04 HouseR 95%
- OH-05 HouseR 94%
- OH-06 HouseR 95%
- OH-07 HouseD 80%
- OH-08 HouseR 91%
- OH-09 HouseD 71%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Ohio Senate race (special election),” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/ohio/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.