2026 Ohio · U.S. House
OH-09 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Marcy Kaptur a 71% chance of winning the 2026 race for OH-09 over Republican Derek Merrin (Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 71%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 71.5% / 28.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 70.9% / 29.1%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.6 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marcy Kaptur (D) | 71.5% | $42K |
| Derek Merrin (R) | 28.5% | $39K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marcy Kaptur (D) | 70.9% | $10K |
| Derek Merrin (R) | 29.1% | $27K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 OH-09 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Marcy Kaptur a 71% chance of winning the 2026 race for OH-09 over Republican Derek Merrin (Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 71%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 72%, Republicans 28%. Polymarket: Democrats 71%, Republicans 29%. The two exchanges differ by 0.6 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Ohio races in 2026
- Ohio GovernorD 63%
- OH-01 HouseD 86%
- OH-10 HouseR 86%
- OH-11 HouseD 98%
- OH-12 HouseR 95%
- OH-13 HouseD 98%
- OH-14 HouseR 95%
- OH-15 HouseR 76%
- OH-02 HouseR 98%
- OH-03 HouseD 98%
- OH-04 HouseR 95%
- OH-05 HouseR 94%
- OH-06 HouseR 95%
- OH-07 HouseD 80%
- OH-08 HouseR 91%
- Ohio SenateD 59%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 OH-09 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/oh-9/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.