2026 Ohio · U.S. House
OH-15 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Carey a 75% chance of winning the 2026 race for OH-15 over Democrat Don Leonard (Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 76%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 25.4% / 74.6%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 24.4% / 75.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 3.1 points over the past 3 months, from 28% to 25%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Carey (R) | 74.6% | $7K |
| Don Leonard (D) | 25.4% | $10K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Carey (R) | 75.6% | $5K |
| Don Leonard (D) | 24.4% | $11K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 OH-15 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mike Carey a 75% chance of winning the 2026 race for OH-15 over Democrat Don Leonard (Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 76%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 25%, Republicans 75%. Polymarket: Democrats 24%, Republicans 76%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 1.4 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Ohio races in 2026
- Ohio GovernorD 63%
- OH-01 HouseD 86%
- OH-10 HouseR 86%
- OH-11 HouseD 98%
- OH-12 HouseR 94%
- OH-13 HouseD 99%
- OH-14 HouseR 95%
- OH-02 HouseR 98%
- OH-03 HouseD 97%
- OH-04 HouseR 95%
- OH-05 HouseR 94%
- OH-06 HouseR 95%
- OH-07 HouseD 80%
- OH-08 HouseR 91%
- OH-09 HouseD 71%
- Ohio SenateD 59%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 OH-15 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/oh-15/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.