2026 Governor

Nevada governor race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Joe Lombardo a 52% chance of winning the 2026 Nevada governor race over Democrat Aaron Ford (Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 51%). The race is rated a toss-up.

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Aaron Ford (D)48%
Joe Lombardo (R) 52%
Market rating
Toss-up
Kalshi (D / R)
46.5% / 53.5%
Polymarket (D / R)
49.2% / 50.8%
Gap between exchanges
2.7 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Joe Lombardo (R)53.5%$326K
Aaron Ford (D)46.5%$573K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Joe Lombardo (R)50.8%$120K
Aaron Ford (D)49.2%$62K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 Nevada governor race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Joe Lombardo a 52% chance of winning the 2026 Nevada governor race over Democrat Aaron Ford (Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 51%). The race is rated a toss-up.

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 47%, Republicans 54%. Polymarket: Democrats 49%, Republicans 51%. The two exchanges differ by 2.7 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Nevada races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Nevada governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/nevada/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.