2026 Nevada · U.S. House
NV-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Steven Horsford a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NV-04 over Republican Cody Whipple (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.9% / 2.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 97.0% / 3.0%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.9 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Horsford (D) | 97.9% | $6K |
| Cody Whipple (R) | 2.1% | $4K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Horsford (D) | 97.0% | $14K |
| Cody Whipple (R) | 3.0% | $6K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NV-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Steven Horsford a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NV-04 over Republican Cody Whipple (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.9 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Nevada races in 2026
- Nevada GovernorR 52%
- NV-01 HouseD 95%
- NV-02 HouseR 77%
- NV-03 HouseD 94%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NV-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nv-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.