2026 Governor
Connecticut governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ned Lamont a 97% chance of winning the 2026 Connecticut governor race over Republican Ryan Fazio (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 96.3% / 3.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 97.5% / 2.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.4 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 97%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ned Lamont (D) | 96.3% | $16K |
| Ryan Fazio (R) | 3.7% | $26K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ned Lamont (D) | 97.5% | $6K |
| Ryan Fazio (R) | 2.5% | $4K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Connecticut governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ned Lamont a 97% chance of winning the 2026 Connecticut governor race over Republican Ryan Fazio (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 1.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Connecticut races in 2026
- CT-01 HouseD 97%
- CT-02 HouseD 98%
- CT-03 HouseD 95%
- CT-04 HouseD 98%
- CT-05 HouseD 96%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Connecticut governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/connecticut/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.