2026 Connecticut · U.S. House
CT-04 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jim Himes a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for CT-04 over Republican Michael Goldstein (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.0% / 3.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.8% / 1.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.8 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.2 points over the past 3 months, from 96% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Himes (D) | 97.0% | $2K |
| Michael Goldstein (R) | 3.0% | $110 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Himes (D) | 98.8% | $22K |
| Michael Goldstein (R) | 1.2% | $26K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 CT-04 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Jim Himes a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for CT-04 over Republican Michael Goldstein (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 1.8 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Connecticut races in 2026
- Connecticut GovernorD 97%
- CT-01 HouseD 97%
- CT-02 HouseD 98%
- CT-03 HouseD 96%
- CT-05 HouseD 96%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 CT-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ct-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.