2026 Connecticut · U.S. House
CT-03 House race odds
As of Oct 4, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Rosa DeLauro a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for CT-03 over Republican Chris Lancia (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).
$28K traded · updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Parlay estimate how?
- D 99% vs. market 95%
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 95.4% / 4.6%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 95.5% / 4.5%
- Total traded
- $28K
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (31 days)
Polls
No general-election polls of this race are listed yet. See RealClearPolitics for its poll listings.
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosa DeLauro | 96¢ | 94¢ | 98¢ | 97¢ | 0¢ |
| Christopher Lancia | 5¢ | 2¢ | 7¢ | 6¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosa DeLauro | 95¢ | 93¢ | 96¢ | 96¢ | ▼1¢ |
| Chris Lancia | 5¢ | 3¢ | 6¢ | 5¢ | ▲1¢ |
Market activity
How much is trading, where the money is going, and the live order book.
Trade records begin Oct 1. Peak day: $8.
Biggest trades on this race
- $4No Rosa DeLauro at 93¢Kalshi · 2d ago
- $4No Rosa DeLauro at 93¢Kalshi · 2d ago
- $2Buy Chris Lancia at 5¢Polymarket · 2d ago
Pro · the money trail
See every big trade and who keeps betting
Free readers see the top 3. Pro shows every large trade, the Polymarket wallets behind them, and which side they're on.
Money flow · last 24 hours
Order book · Polymarket · Rosa DeLauro
Loading the live order book…
Money waiting to buy (green) and sell (red) at each price. Refreshes every 30 seconds.
Trade tape
Connecting…| When | Exchange | Trade | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading trades… | ||||
Polymarket trades appear live. Kalshi trades are collected every 10 minutes for the most active contracts. Blue backs the Democrat, red the Republican.
Price history
Democratic odds rose 1.9 points over the past 3 months, from 94% to 95%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Rosa DeLauro (D) | 95.4% | $665 |
| Christopher Lancia (R) | 4.6% | $405 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Rosa DeLauro (D) | 95.5% | $4K |
| Chris Lancia (R) | 4.5% | $23K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 CT-03 House race?
As of Oct 4, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Rosa DeLauro a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for CT-03 over Republican Chris Lancia (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. Polymarket: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. The two exchanges differ by 0.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 1.2 points since Sep 27, 2026.
What is the Parlay estimate for the 2026 CT-03 House race?
The Parlay estimate gives Democrats 99%, against 95% in the markets. Our model, trained on decided races, finds that clear favorites win more often than their prices imply.
How much money has been traded on the 2026 CT-03 House race?
$28K has traded on Kalshi and Polymarket combined, $11 of it in the past 7 days.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 31 days from now.
Other Connecticut races in 2026
- Connecticut GovernorD 97% · $51K
- CT-01 HouseD 97% · $17K
- CT-02 HouseD 98% · $23K
- CT-04 HouseD 98% · $50K
- CT-05 HouseD 96% · $16K
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 CT-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ct-3/, accessed Oct 4, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.
